Dollars and (no) sense

Ladies and gentlemen, the Deuce:

Since everyone is raving about the Rangers' "Free Agent Coup," I thought I'd take a look at their roster and see what their outlook looks like for the next few years:

Salary Cap Hits for NYR (in millions, of course):

Jagr (now 35 years old): 8.36 - expires 09/10
Gomez: 7.35, 7 more years (will be 34 yrs. Old)
Drury: 7.05, 5 more years (will be 35 yrs old)
Straka (now 33 yrs old): 3.3, expires next year
Mara: 3
Cullen: 2.8, expires 10/11
Malik: 2.5
Rozsival: 2.3
Montoya: 0.984
Tyutin: 0.95
Staal: 0.850
Betts: 0.615
Hollwed: 0.513
Orr: 0.538
Callahan: 0 .575
Thomas: 0.668
Girardi: .550

Free Agents Yet to Be Signed
Shanahan (37 yrs old): UFA, made 4 million last year
Avery: RFA - made 1.1 last year
Rachunek: RFA, made 1.8 last year
Hossa: RFA - made 0.6 last year
Prucha: RFA - made 0.55 last year
LUNDQUIST: RFA - Made 0.817 last year; Will make A LOT MORE this year!

TOTAL: 42.9 MILLION - WITHOUT NEW CONTRACTS FOR RFAs Shanahan, Hossa, Prucha, Avery, Rachunek, and LUNDQUIST! The Rangers have just under 10 million dollars per year to sign those 6 players (say goodbye to Rachunek). It would seem to me that they can sign Lundquist, Hossa, and Prucha with that money, but not Shanahan, and they may have to cut ties with Avery. Regardless, this is the Rangers' roster for the foresesable future (with the exception of Cheraponov coming over with a rookie contract in 08/09).

Grumpy Outlook: They'd better win in the next couple of years, because unless the Cap continues to skyrocket, they have very little flexibility to make changes (unless they let Lundquist walk, which I don't see happening). Remember, Hossa and Prucha should command substantial raises. If Marc Staal turns out to be the player they hope he will, they will need to start looking at resigning him come 08/09. The same may be true of Montoya (aka Trade Bait). Regardless, they will still lean heavily on Jagr…a fatal flaw for any team in the NHL. Especially considering his team just spend around 100 million dollars and he's whining about them letting Nylander go. We'll see, but in 5 years, when Drury and Gomez (two smallish centers whose games depend quite a bit on speed) are getting long in the tooth are counting 14 million against the cap, they'd better be producing like superstars. We've all seen what Tampa Bay has done since they had to let everybody but Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Richards walk. The Rangers will also have to let their roll players walk with that kind of money tied up in their "superstars." And as we've seen this offseason, experienced blueliners don't sign contracts worth under a million a year.

Basically, what I'm trying to say is -- The Redskins, er, Rangers, are making the classic Big Market Big Spender mistake in a Hard-Cap System -- throwing max money at two guys, neither of which I would classify as a "superstar," simply because they can, with no though as to the ramifications down the line. Here's to hoping it blows up in their faces.

On tempering expectations

Since the draft, Original Six has been sending emails to the Deuce and I every day, with a countdown to "D-Day," or the start of free agency. There is a sense of anticipation, a buzz that is evident on the message boards, in several blogs, and in the hearts of Caps fans everywhere. Caps fans are giddy in anticipation that the club will dig deep into its pockets and pull Drury, Gomez, or even *ugh* Briere into the fold. So, as the resident grumps in the group, it's up to us to bust the bubble for everyone.

You will not see Chris Drury, Scott Gomez, or little Danielle Briere in a Capitals sweater (or jersey or uniform system) this year.

Okay, deep breaths everybody.

Here's why:

The Capitals are shallow at the center position, but they also have a prospect that they believe can be a true number one center in Nicklas Backstrom. He has top tier Swedish Elite league and international experience with Team Sweden (the senior team, not a junior roster). He'll be a full year older, more experienced, and more physically developed than other NHL rookies. And George McPhee almost cracked a smile when talking about him during a recent press conference (for those of you that know how much McPhee dislikes dealing with the press know this is no small thing).

Signing one of the "big three" immediately cuts into Backstrom's minutes. Severely. And if Nick is anything like a certain other Capitals rookie who came into the league a full year after he was drafted, the Caps will want him playing first line minutes. So it makes very little sense to go out and break the bank on a number one center when you have the makings of one already under contract with the organization.

So, if the number one center position is taken, what do the Caps need to do?

I wrote last season that the team's most pressing needs are at the blue line, and that still holds true. The Capitals absolutely NEED a top tier defenseman, for two reasons. First and most obviously, they need a defenseman with the experience to play first line minutes and strike fear into opposing players who right now view the Caps defense as a set of turnstiles. Don't get me wrong, the Capitals do have talent back there, especially with the younger players. However, they don't have a hammer, a guy who forwards will actively avoid engaging. Think Scott Hannon, not Sheldon Souray.

That brings us to the second reason the Caps need a big time defensive defensmen. They have a wealth of young, talented blueliners who lack experience. And while teaming with Pothier will help them learn how to make a great breakout pass, it will not teach them how and when to play the body of an opposing forward. Having a veteran defenseman to tutor Jurcina, Green, Shultz, Morrison, Eminger and now Alzner is an absolute necessity for them to continue their professional growth. Without one, it will take a minor miracle for them to develop into top tier NHL defensemen.

Once the Caps make a move for a free agent defenseman, they still have a hole up the middle that needs to be addressed. But since they're looking for a number 2 center, and not a number 1, they have options. Options like Handzus, Nylander, or even bringing back Dainius Zubrus. Reuniting Ovechkin, Zubrus and Clark would give the Caps two top tier scoring lines with Semin, Backstrom and either Fleischmann, Fehr (should his hip heal up) or a mid-level free agent right wing working the second line. This looks more and more likely since Buffalo has decided not to sign Zubrus to an offer before the start of free agency. It's no secret that we aren't huge fans of Zubrus as a number one center, but as a number 2 or 3 he could be effective. And since Backstrom would be the number one pivot on the power play, that's effectively the role Zubrus would fill, even though he'd be logging minutes on the first line at full strength. Handzus could fill that role equally well, and his defensive prowess would allow him to play with either the first or second line (since we all know Semin and, to a lesser extent, Ovechkin need someone willing to do the dirty work in the defensive zone).

So Caps fans, when the Capitals don't break the bank signing Drury, Briere, or Gomez, don't fret. But if they don't sign a big-time defenseman and a second tier free agent center, if may be time to hit the panic button.

Guess we HAVE to focus on Gomez and Drury now

Per ESPN, Datsyuk is off the market.

That's the last time

I ever write something nice about a free-agent-to-be that I think the Caps should sign. Scott Gomez, you owe me for this one. So just make it easy on all of us and sign here in the offseason.

The Caps played fairly well considering the plague is sweeping through their ranks, but lost again to the Devils last night, 4-3. A late rally including a last minute goal by Alexander Semin couldn't quite pull the Caps even. As I've said before, with a young (and getting younger by the minute) team you want to see the kind of effort and determination the Caps showed regardless of whether they could cap off the comeback.

Kudos to Lawrence Nycholat for scoring his first NHL goal. People who never play sports at a highly competitive level tend to overlook moments like his last night, but if you realize just how incredibly difficult it is to reach the top professional league in the world, and how rare it is for a player to realize that dream, you get an inkling of what last night must have felt like for him.

The Capitals are 0-4 in their murderous 5 day, four game trip. Hopefully they (and half the Hershey Bears roster) can steal 2 points tonight against the Rangers.

Tonight: Caps v. Devils

Tonight at the V, the Caps take on the New Jersey Devils. Random note: Shouldn't the Devils be forced to wear their Christmas tree jerseys for the holidays?

The Caps are still pretty banged up (man, that welcome back Matt Bradley segment is looking more foolish by the day). Both teams enter the game playing better than .500 hockey in their last ten games, which should make for a good scrap tonight. With Erskine out and Big Daddy Donnie Brashear a game time decision, the Caps will have to depend on their offense to express their anger over last game, rather than pummeling the opposition physically.

On a related note, tonight should be a good opportunity for our brass to get a close look at free-agent-to-be Scott Gomez. The Devils won't have the cap space to re-sign him, and we all know the Caps have the room to make a legitimate offer. He makes a perfect fit for the Caps lineup, and would represent a huge upgrade at the pivot. Gomez' skill and willingness to play a physical game would match the team's style of play well. He is also a proven winner, with two Stanley Cup rings. That would give the Caps 3 quality centers (assuming Backstrom is even half as good as advertised), as opposed to the one we have now.

Okay, enough of touting one of the opposition's players.

My pick: Capitals 4, New Jersey Lesser Daemons 2.