Three points and a world of difference

Tonight, when the puck drops in Buffalo and the Sabres take on the Washington Capitals, the teams will be separated by only three points in the standings. Both teams will have played 67 games at that point, and both teams are currently on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Aside from those points, the two franchises couldn't be headed in more opposite directions.

The Capitals are clearly on the upswing. Their rebuild may have cost the team in the short term, but the organization's pre-lockout fire sale set the team up to be successful in the long term. Along with winning the lottery and grabbing all-universe talent Alex Ovechkin, the team has steadily stockpiled draft picks and prospects, including (but not limited to) NHL regulars Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, and Shoanne Morrison. The Caps also have highly touted defensive prospects "Giant" Joe Finley and Karl "the human quote machine" Alzner in the pipeline, as well as more draft picks than you can shake a stick at. Once the organization sensed the time was right, it was able to use a 2nd round draft pick and a mid-level prospect to bolster the team's playoff hopes. And the Caps have one of the better (and wealthier) ownership groups in the game, which made their superduperultramega deal to keep Ovechkin in DC for 13 years possible.

Meanwhile, the Sabres have been on a downswing ever since their run in the Stanley Cup playoffs was so rudely snuffed out by Ottawa last season. The Sabres have since lost their top two centers (Drury and Briere) to free agency, and were forced to part with their top defenseman at the trade deadline. And before Sabres fans start moaning about the financial issues that prevented them from keeping their players, remember that the Sabres had the opportunity to sign Briere to a long term deal the season before last, and decided to take their chances with a one year deal with the young center. The decision cost them one of their best players and what could have been a cornerstone of a young team. Instead, they got nothing for Briere when he bolted for Flyers and a boatload of cash. Now, certainly financial issues motivated the moves (or lack thereof) that the Sabres have made the past few seasons, but the fact is they've also made some poor personnel decisions to compound their plight.

As these two teams scrap for a playoff spot, one thing is certain. The future looks a whole lot brighter for the Caps than it does for the Sabres.

But tonight is not about the future. Tonight is about the present. Can the Caps come up large against a depleted but passionate Sabres squad and pull within one of Carolina for the division lead (and within 2 points of the Rangers and the #8 seed)?

And by the way, today is one of the few days in the season where it's permissible to root for the Thrashers.

On tempering expectations

Since the draft, Original Six has been sending emails to the Deuce and I every day, with a countdown to "D-Day," or the start of free agency. There is a sense of anticipation, a buzz that is evident on the message boards, in several blogs, and in the hearts of Caps fans everywhere. Caps fans are giddy in anticipation that the club will dig deep into its pockets and pull Drury, Gomez, or even *ugh* Briere into the fold. So, as the resident grumps in the group, it's up to us to bust the bubble for everyone.

You will not see Chris Drury, Scott Gomez, or little Danielle Briere in a Capitals sweater (or jersey or uniform system) this year.

Okay, deep breaths everybody.

Here's why:

The Capitals are shallow at the center position, but they also have a prospect that they believe can be a true number one center in Nicklas Backstrom. He has top tier Swedish Elite league and international experience with Team Sweden (the senior team, not a junior roster). He'll be a full year older, more experienced, and more physically developed than other NHL rookies. And George McPhee almost cracked a smile when talking about him during a recent press conference (for those of you that know how much McPhee dislikes dealing with the press know this is no small thing).

Signing one of the "big three" immediately cuts into Backstrom's minutes. Severely. And if Nick is anything like a certain other Capitals rookie who came into the league a full year after he was drafted, the Caps will want him playing first line minutes. So it makes very little sense to go out and break the bank on a number one center when you have the makings of one already under contract with the organization.

So, if the number one center position is taken, what do the Caps need to do?

I wrote last season that the team's most pressing needs are at the blue line, and that still holds true. The Capitals absolutely NEED a top tier defenseman, for two reasons. First and most obviously, they need a defenseman with the experience to play first line minutes and strike fear into opposing players who right now view the Caps defense as a set of turnstiles. Don't get me wrong, the Capitals do have talent back there, especially with the younger players. However, they don't have a hammer, a guy who forwards will actively avoid engaging. Think Scott Hannon, not Sheldon Souray.

That brings us to the second reason the Caps need a big time defensive defensmen. They have a wealth of young, talented blueliners who lack experience. And while teaming with Pothier will help them learn how to make a great breakout pass, it will not teach them how and when to play the body of an opposing forward. Having a veteran defenseman to tutor Jurcina, Green, Shultz, Morrison, Eminger and now Alzner is an absolute necessity for them to continue their professional growth. Without one, it will take a minor miracle for them to develop into top tier NHL defensemen.

Once the Caps make a move for a free agent defenseman, they still have a hole up the middle that needs to be addressed. But since they're looking for a number 2 center, and not a number 1, they have options. Options like Handzus, Nylander, or even bringing back Dainius Zubrus. Reuniting Ovechkin, Zubrus and Clark would give the Caps two top tier scoring lines with Semin, Backstrom and either Fleischmann, Fehr (should his hip heal up) or a mid-level free agent right wing working the second line. This looks more and more likely since Buffalo has decided not to sign Zubrus to an offer before the start of free agency. It's no secret that we aren't huge fans of Zubrus as a number one center, but as a number 2 or 3 he could be effective. And since Backstrom would be the number one pivot on the power play, that's effectively the role Zubrus would fill, even though he'd be logging minutes on the first line at full strength. Handzus could fill that role equally well, and his defensive prowess would allow him to play with either the first or second line (since we all know Semin and, to a lesser extent, Ovechkin need someone willing to do the dirty work in the defensive zone).

So Caps fans, when the Capitals don't break the bank signing Drury, Briere, or Gomez, don't fret. But if they don't sign a big-time defenseman and a second tier free agent center, if may be time to hit the panic button.

Don't say we didn't warn you

From the Deuce:
"Looks like some people in Buffalo have the same opinion of Zubrus as us.

By the way, of Zubrus's two "assists" last night, one was a second assist passed in the neutral zone, and one was him pushing the puck to Eminger, who was tripped by Briere behind the net. The little cheater then walked out in front all alone and scored."

Buffalo sucks

but you knew that already. The big story tonight will be Dainius Zubrus' first game against his former team since being traded away at the deadline. Zubrus will probably be bumped to the right wing (his natural position) in the game, where his primary responsibility will be shutting down The Russian Machine and Alexander "One shot, one kill" Semin. It should be interesting to see how he matches up, considering his defense is one of the main reasons Buffalo traded for him in the first place.

Per Tarik, Ovechkin had this to say about lining up against Zubrus:

"Sometimes I don't know where I go. So he will never know where I'm going. It will be a fun game if he plays against me because I know his moves, his strong side. It will be good -- for me."

The funny thing is, I don't really think he's kidding. Great offensive players generally don't so much think the game as they feel it. They make snap decisions in the flow of the game, which is what makes them so dangerous. And while I don't doubt Zubrus has an ever-so-slight advantage over much of the league in terms of knowing Ovie's tendencies, I don't think that will be enough to keep Ovechkin off the scoresheet tonight. Even if he does play with a bird cage on.

The other big question of the night centers on whether Sasha Semin can continue his scoring tear. With much of the BuffaSlugs attention focused on Ovechkin this season, Semin comes into this game a bit under the radar (which is insane for a player that's had 6 points in his last two games). If the Slugs cover Semin the way the media has leading up to this game (which is to say, not much at all) I wouldn't be surprised if he potted another pair.

Game time is 7 o'clock. Don't forget to watch along with your Danielle Briere voodoo doll (don't be afraid to twist it like a Stretch Armstrong). If that jerk gets his 30th against us, my head might explode.

Daniel Briere shows his true colors

and apparently they're yellow (and I don't mean Buffaslug yellow). Instead of trying to exact retribution through physical play or trying to pile on the offense, Briere showed what a classless piece of trash he is by attempting to spear Alex Ovechkin in the, ahem, lower region. Ovechkin showed his strength of character by not killing Briere on the spot. At the whistle, Ovechkin challenged the coward to a fight, which, of course Briere chickened out of. AO later scored on a wicked shot from just inside the blueline to an ovation of boos from the crowd.

Yet again, the gutless NHL referees "didn't see the play," which makes you wonder why, besides slowing the game to a crawl, they actually show up. First and foremost, it is the responsibility of the referees to make sure that they keep the game under control and prevent cheap shots that endanger the health of the players on the ice. And they failed. Spectacularly. Again. I doubt the league will do anything to discipline Briere, since the Sabres resurgence has been too cute a story to ruin by suspending one of their star players for being a cheapshot piece of trash.

Oh, and the Caps lost the game, undone by allowing the Sabres six goals on their first nine shots. Brent Johnson got the early hook, and the Caps pressed to make the game competitive, scoring a goal late in the first and two more down the stretch.

Next game is tonight at the V against les Canadiens de Montréal.