Why the Flyers are Doomed to Fail for the Next Decade

Ladies and Gentlemen, the Deuce breaks out his hatchet and murders the Flyers:

Since everyone is wrapped up in predictions and series breakdowns, I thought I would look at the futures of the two franchises facing off tonight at the Verizon Center. As others have noted, these two teams have taken two radically different views on rebuilding. The Flyers’ approach can best be described as “the quick fix,” sort of like that commercial where the engineers stick a piece of bubble gum over that crack in the Hoover Dam. The Caps, on the other hand, were patient, tearing down the team prior to the lockout/work stoppage, and rebuilding through draft picks and deadline acquisitions that do not bring contract obligations past this year.

After one bad year, in which they missed the playoffs, Philly went out like a drunken sailor in the Hotel California and brought in everyone’s favorite punk, Danielle Briere, and traded for and signed Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timmonen, Marty Biron. They then totally lost their minds and signed Mike Richards, everyone’s favorite 20-goal scorer, to an 11-year, $5.75 million a year contract. Good move. For this lunacy, Flyers GM Paul Holmgren was almost universally praised.

The Caps, on the other hand, took the hard road. They traded away Gonchar, Bondra, Nylander, Jagr, and the rest, and got back a bunch of young kids nobody had ever heard of and some draft picks in return. They stank the year before, and two years after the lockout. But they drafted intelligently, refused to panic and trade their prospects and draft picks, and played the kids, both in DC and Hershey. They made smart, reasonable free agent signings (Pothier, Nylander, Poti, Kozlov). For this approach, Ted Leonsis and GM George McPhee were almost universally panned. So let’s take a look at the rosters and salary cap numbers, shall we?

Philly:
Forwards of Note
Danielle Briere: $6.5 million/yr through 2014-15
Simon Gagne: $5.25 through 2010/11
Scott Hartnell: $4.1 through 2012/13
Mike Knuble $2.8 through end of next year
Jeoffrey Lupul: $2.8 through end of next year
Sami Kappanen & Scottie Upshall: $1.25 through end of next year
MIKE RICHARDS: $5.75 through 2019/20
RJ Umberger and Jeff Carter are RFAs this summer

Defensemen of Note
Kimmo Timmonen: $6.33 through 2012/13
Derian Hatcher: (wait for it --- wait for it ---) $3.5 million through end of next year
Mike Rathje: $3.5 million through 2010/11
Jason Smith: $1.975 through end of next year (UFA)
Braydon Coburn: $1.3 million starting next year for 2 years

Goaltenders: Wait for it, wait for it:
Marty Biron: $3.5 through 2009/10
Antero Nittymaki: $1.225 through 2009/10

Cap hit this year $55 million
Cap hit next year $49.5 million - and they still need to resign Umberger and Carter, who will be RFAs this summer.
Cap hit in 3 years: $33 million

Compare that with the Capitals:
Capitals Cap Hit this year: $39.021
Cap Hit next year: $34.8 million (but we still need to sign Green (RFA), Morrison (RFA), and Huet/Kolzig (UFAs))
Cap hit in 3 years: $28.4

So which roster would you rather have in 2009/10 for essentially the same salary cap hit?
Philly - with Briere (31 years old with 5 years left on his contract), Gagne (30 years old); Hartnell ((27 with 3 years left), Richards (24 years old with 9 years remaining); and VanRiemsdyck (on an entry level contract) up front, and
Timmonen (34 with 3 years remaining); Rathje (35); and Coburn (24) on the back line (and Biron and Nittymaki in net)

OR

Ovechkin (23 years old with 11 years remaining), Semin (25 years old coming up RFA the next summer), Clark (33 years old with a year remaining), Nylander (36 with a year remaining), Backstrom (21 and and RFA the next summer), Fleishmann (25 and RFA the next summer) up front; Poti (32 with 2 yrs left), Pothier (???) (32 with 1 year left), Green (who we know we’ll resign), Alzner on the back line (on an entry-level contract with 1 year remaining), Huet or Kolzig in net.

I think if we polled NHL GMs, even Holmgren would take that second lineup. In a second. And remember, that’s when you factor in 5 million a year or so for Green!

Even worse, the Flyers have killed themselves in the long term, as Briere will be a 6.5 million dollar cap hit when he’s 35 and 36 with a no-trade clause!
Timmonen will be a $6.3 hit when he’s 37!
MIKE FREAKING RICHARDS will be a $5.75 hit when he’s 34 years old.
AND, they’re just above-average enough to be a fringe playoff team for the next 6-7 years, meaning no high draft picks, no blue-chip sure fire young superstars in the near future. Oops.

The only deal the Caps have past 2010/11 is Ovechkin: at 9.5 a year. I’ll take that one. So the Flyers have taken the quick fix route back to the playoffs, where they are doomed to be a team that will be average to pretty good for the next, oh, six years or so. They’ll play a hard nosed, hard working style, have mediocre goaltending, and are doomed to eventually bow out to teams with more talented superstars. Sound familiar Caps Fans?

Boy, am I glad those days are over. On the other hand, the Caps still have some work to do…they have to resign their restricted free agents (Green, Morrison, Laich, Gordon, Fehr, probably in that order of importance), and lock up a solid netminder until we find out if Varlamov or Neuvirth are any good (Huet, anyone?), but even then, the Caps will have the salary cap room to make moves and add to an already potent lineup.

Sorry Philly. It looks like the Championship drought is going to last at least a decade or so longer. But you can always reminisce about the old days of the Broad Street Bullies, and talk about how tough your team is. And hey, how about them Eagles?

Oh, and one more thing: Jim Butler --- you’re an idiot. Only someone as dumb as you could insult an entire fan base in the NY Times, then act surprised when they (rightfully) hammer you for it.